How AST Can Be Tested (and Proven Wrong)
MAT Threshold Hypothesis
Prediction: Interventions show no significant effect when MAT ≥ 15.
Emergent Moderation Hypothesis
Prediction: Same SED'raw has different outcomes by HMC/CCC/HV.
AE Type Hypothesis
Prediction: Enabling CCCs predict collective AE.
RPQ Predictive Hypothesis
Prediction: RPQ > 2 predicts fragmentation/authoritarian turn.
Feedback Loop Hypothesis
Prediction: Individual AE/MSI shifts alter emergent context scores.
Probability Field Hypothesis
Prediction: Identical AGI initial conditions produce stable probability distributions, not identical outputs.
The AST Tracker App
The AST Self-Tracker app (in development) is designed as a research instrument to test these predictions.